Leaked Iranian Memo: The Ukraine Crisis and Its Impact on Tehran’s Foreign Relations
Document Reveals Iran’s Strategic Concerns Over Ukraine War, Relations with Russia, and EU Sanctions
A leaked Iranian memo revealed Tehran’s growing anxiety in 2023 over its involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the escalating fallout with Kyiv, and the potential collapse of its diplomatic standing with Europe. The document, intended for an internal ambassadors’ seminar, lays bare Iran’s frantic efforts to manage the repercussions of its military cooperation with Moscow, which has led to Ukrainian sanctions, EU scrutiny, and mounting global isolation.
This historical document confirms what Ukraine has been saying all along—Iran’s drone exports to Russia have made it a direct accomplice in Putin’s brutal invasion. Yet, behind closed doors, Iranian officials are desperately strategizing to avoid complete diplomatic fallout while continuing their covert military ties with the Kremlin.
From diplomatic maneuvering to damage control tactics, this leaked document provides a rare inside look at Iran’s real concerns—not for the Ukrainian lives destroyed by their weapons, but for the survival of their own regime in the face of increasing global pressure.
Below is a synopsis of the memo, dating from spring of 2023, with the fully translated version available at the end of this newsletter.
A reminder: Please share, like, and comment
In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful
“We categorically reject and condemn involvement in the Ukraine war. This is not correct. We do not believe America’s Ukraine war for NATO’s eastward expansion is justified. Meanwhile, as the people of Ukraine suffer, America and arms manufacturers profit, preventing necessary steps to end the war.”
– Supreme Leader, February 20, 2023
1. Current State of the Ukraine War
Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, following months of warnings from the U.S. and NATO about Russia’s military buildup. Two days prior, Moscow recognized the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
Initially expected to be a swift campaign, the war has persisted for over 14 months with no clear resolution. Despite early Russian advances—such as besieging Kyiv and Kharkiv—Ukraine regained control of several territories with increased NATO military support.
Key Developments and Statistics:
Occupied Territories: Russia controls approximately 15% of Ukraine, including Crimea, parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Western Aid to Ukraine: $156 billion in pledges, including $71 billion from the U.S., $62 billion from Europe, and $23 billion from other nations.
Casualties:
Russian military: Over 200,000 casualties, with 40,000–60,000 killed.
Ukrainian military: Over 100,000 killed or wounded.
Russian Missile Strikes: Since September 2022, Russia has launched 15 large-scale missile attacks, firing over 1,200 missiles, damaging 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Sanctions on Russia: $220 billion in frozen assets, restrictions on central bank reserves, Swift banking bans, asset seizures worth $100 billion, and corporate exits from Russia.
Key Political Events:
November 2022: Russia annexed four Ukrainian provinces via referendum.
February 24, 2023: China proposed a 12-point peace plan, supported by Russia but met with caution by Ukraine.
March 24, 2023: The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over the forced transfer of Ukrainian children.
Economic Impact: The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need $411 billion for post-war reconstruction over the next decade.
2. Iran-Ukraine Dispute and Bilateral Relations
The Ukraine war has reshaped Iran’s foreign policy landscape, affecting its ties with both Russia and the West. The growing spotlight on Iran-Russia defense cooperation has intensified scrutiny of Iran’s role in the conflict.
Since July 2022, Iran has faced accusations of supplying military equipment to Russia. Ukraine responded by downgrading diplomatic ties, canceling agreements, and imposing sanctions on Iranian entities.
2.1. Ukraine’s Hostile Measures Toward Iran
October 24, 2022: Ukraine expelled Iran’s ambassador and reduced Iranian diplomatic staff in Kyiv.
October 27, 2022: Ukraine threatened severing ties if Russia used Iranian missiles.
November 7, 2022: The Ukrainian parliament issued a statement condemning Iran’s alleged support for Russia.
December 21, 2022: Ukrainian President addressed U.S. Congress, calling Iran a “terrorist ally” of Russia.
February 12, 2023: Ukraine’s Prime Minister accused Iran of complicity in war crimes.
February 13, 2023: Ukraine’s Foreign Minister warned of potential diplomatic severance.
2.2. Iran’s Diplomatic Responses
Six rounds of high-level talks, last held on November 5, 2022.
November 22, 2022: Iran-Ukraine expert-level talks took place in Oman.
February 13, 2023: Iran’s Deputy FM spoke with Ukraine’s Special Representative for the Middle East.
Ongoing efforts to schedule further talks, though Ukraine remains unresponsive.
2.3. Future of Iran-Ukraine Relations
Ukraine’s escalating rhetoric, diplomatic downgrades, and sanctions indicate a path toward severing ties. However, Kyiv’s continued engagement suggests a strategic approach rather than an immediate break.
Iran-Russia military cooperation remains the most critical factor influencing Iran-Ukraine relations. If Iran deepens strategic military ties with Russia, Ukraine may fully sever diplomatic relations.
To mitigate fallout:
Continued diplomatic engagement is essential.
Reopening Iran’s Moldova embassy could serve as a contingency for severed ties.
Managing EU relations is crucial to minimize damage to Iran’s broader foreign policy.
3. Impact of the Ukraine War on Iran-EU Relations
Western accusations of Iran supplying drones to Russia have severely strained Iran-EU ties. These allegations have fueled sanctions, diplomatic tensions, and obstacles in nuclear negotiations.
3.1. Europe’s Perspective on Iran’s Role
Strategic Threat: Europe views Iran’s arms support as a direct challenge to European security.
UN Violations: Alleged arms transfers violate UNSC Resolution 2231.
War Crimes Accusations: Iran’s drones are reportedly used in attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Ballistic Missile Concerns: Europe warns that Iran supplying missiles to Russia would escalate tensions.
3.2. Europe’s Objectives
Deterring Iran from deepening ties with Russia.
Preventing an anti-Western Iran-Russia-China alliance.
Pressuring Iran diplomatically and economically.
3.3. Strategic Approaches for Iran
Potential Benefits of Engagement:
Reducing tensions with the EU.
Preventing new sanctions and legal actions.
Protecting Iran’s interests in nuclear negotiations.
Avoiding further isolation in international diplomacy.
Risks of Engagement:
Russia’s dissatisfaction, leading to hidden retaliatory measures.
Weakening alliances with Iran’s traditional partners.
Potential Western leverage over Iran’s missile and regional policies.
3.4. Recommended Diplomatic Tactics
Balance Iran’s Position: Clarify that Western pressure on Iran pushes it closer to Russia.
Use Iran-Russia ties as leverage: Frame Iran’s role as a negotiable factor in broader discussions on nuclear and regional issues.
Strengthen ties with Eastern Europe: Engage with Poland, Romania, and Ukraine’s neighbors.
Expose Western Hypocrisy: Highlight Europe’s past arms sales to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war.
Challenge European Intelligence Claims: Demand evidence for accusations of Iran’s involvement in Russia’s war efforts.
Here is the fully translated memo:
The Ukraine Crisis and Its Impacts on Foreign Relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Ambassadors Seminar - April-May 2023
In the name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful
We categorically reject and condemn presence in the Ukraine war. Such a thing is not correct. We don't believe America's Ukraine war for NATO's eastward expansion is justified, and now that the people of Ukraine are caught up in problems, America and arms manufacturing factories are making the most profit and therefore preventing the necessary work for ending the war.
Supreme Leader, February 20, 2023
1) Latest Situation of the Ukraine War
Russia's all-out attack on Ukraine began in conditions on February 24, 2022, when repeated warnings from America and NATO about Russia's military buildup and Western attention to the Kremlin's security concerns had been completely ignored in the preceding months. Two days before that, Moscow had recognized the independence of the two republics of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
But a war that was thought would end within a few days or weeks with the fall of the Ukrainian government and Kyiv's occupation, after 14 months still continues and there is no clear prospect for its end. Despite Russia's initial success, especially the siege of Kyiv (the capital) and Kharkiv (the second largest city of Ukraine), with the expansion of NATO's military support to Ukraine, Russia gradually lost its field initiative. Many of the initially occupied areas were handed back to Ukrainian forces.
Lack of precise military planning and weak support from operational forces caused Russia to be unable to achieve the desired result. Despite this, over the past 5 months, despite heavy fighting in some areas of eastern Ukraine, the war has remained in a frozen situation and neither side has been able to achieve a decisive victory in the field.
The most important development in the coming weeks of the war is Ukraine's counterattack against Russia, which will be conducted with the coordination and guidance of American intelligence. It is predicted that about 60,000 Ukrainian forces, 250 tanks, and 350 personnel carriers will be used in this attack.
Some of the most important indicators of the Ukraine war are as follows:
Occupied territories under Russia's control: Crimea peninsula, parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, and parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson provinces, equivalent to approximately 15% of Ukraine's territory.
Total Western aid to Ukraine: $156 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian aid pledges, of which $71 billion has been America's commitment, $62 billion from Europe, and $23 billion from other countries.
Russian army casualties: More than 200,000 people, between 40,000 and 60,000 of whom have been killed.
Ukrainian army casualties: More than 100,000 people (killed and wounded).
Since September 2022, Russia has conducted 15 massive missile attacks against Ukraine's urban and military infrastructure, using more than 1,200 missiles, and about 40% of Ukraine's energy facilities have suffered serious damage.
Major sanctions against Russia: Freezing $220 billion, cutting access to Russia's central bank reserves, closing Russian airspace and sea routes to Swift, freezing assets of Russian officials and personalities amounting to about $100 billion, and the exit of major oil, industrial, and automobile manufacturing companies from Russia.
In November 2021, Russia held a referendum in occupied territories and annexed 4 provinces to its territory based on its results.
On February 24, 2023, China presented a 12-point peace plan to end the war. This plan was presented with Russia's support but met with Ukraine's cautious reaction.
On March 24, 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on charges of "committing war crimes associated with the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia."
According to the World Bank, Ukraine's reconstruction in the next 10 years will need $411 billion, and in this war, one-fifth of a residential unit has been destroyed and health and medical facilities have been damaged.
2) Iran-Ukraine Dispute and Bilateral Relations
The Russia-Ukraine war, due to its nature and effects, has influenced global developments and has also placed the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran under its influence. The relationship and position of the Islamic Republic of Iran with this war has also changed with attention to its developments and has found new dimensions.
This war has placed the security-defense relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia more in the view of external observers. In this framework, the relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Ukraine on one side and with the Western community, especially the European Union, on the other side have come under complete influence.
The acceleration of the impact of this dispute on the foreign relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran since July 2022 has intensified with the simultaneous publication of news regarding Iran sending military equipment to Russia for the attack on Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government, on the pretext of Russia's use of Iranian drones, began to reduce bilateral relations since September 2022. This process involved canceling the accreditation of the ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Ukraine, reducing the number of Iranian diplomatic personnel in Kyiv, canceling or suspending some bilateral agreements, and imposing sanctions against individuals and entities of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kyiv which continues.
2-1) Process of Actions and Destructive Statements by Ukrainian Parties in Bilateral Relations
Ukraine's action to reduce the level of relations by canceling the credentials of the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran and reducing Iran's diplomatic staff in Kyiv to two people, dated October 24, 2022.
Announcement by Ukraine's Foreign Minister on October 27, 2022: This country will cut ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran if Russia uses Iranian missiles.
Approval of a statement on November 7, 2022, against what is called Iran's support for armed aggression against Ukraine, in the Ukrainian parliament. (With a response by sending a diplomatic note)
The beginning of the cancellation and suspension of state cooperation documents between Iran and Ukraine by the Ukrainian side from November 2022 (5 documents have been canceled in banking, financial, judicial, and study areas).
Statement by the Ukrainian President in the American Congress on December 21, 2022: "Russia has found a new ally in its genocidal policy: Iran. Iranian deadly drones sent to Russia in the hundreds became a threat to our critical infrastructure. That's how one terrorist found the other. If we don't stop them now, they will go after others in the future. I'll send a message to you, if you don't halt them now, they will attack you too." (A response was given with a diplomatic note)
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister announced on February 13, 2023 that a decision to cut diplomatic relations with Iran might be taken at any time considering Iran's behaviors.
Ukraine's Prime Minister on February 12, 2023: "Iran is complicit in the crimes Russia has committed in Ukraine, and must be held accountable as it has provided weapons and equipment to Russia and sent its drones to destroy our infrastructure."
2-2) Actions Taken
So far, 6 rounds of telephone conversations between the foreign ministers of the two countries have been conducted. The latest telephone conversation with the Ukrainian counterpart took place on November 5, 2022.
Despite follow-ups from the Ukrainian side, the seventh round of conversation was not agreed upon.
Expert-level bilateral talks between Iran and Ukraine were held in Oman on November 22, 2022, by following up on telephone conversation between the foreign ministers.
Telephone conversation between the Deputy Foreign Minister and the Special Representative of the Ukrainian President in the Middle East, on February 13, 2023.
Despite follow-ups for conducting a second telephone conversation between the special representatives of the two countries since mid-February 2023, the Ukrainian side has not yet responded to this request.
Following up on holding a second round of expert-level talks and suggesting time and place for these talks.
Continued response to allegations about the delivery of Iranian weapons to Russia and Iran's participation in the war.
Diplomatic actions (issuing notes, summoning chargé d'affaires, etc.) in reaction to the non-constructive statements and positions of the Ukrainian side.
2-3) Future of Iran-Ukraine Relations in the Shadow of the Russia Dispute
Despite the holding of the first round of expert-level talks between Iran and Ukraine, we are witnessing a more stringent approach from the Ukrainian government towards relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. During this period, the trend of hostile statements from Ukrainian officials against our country has intensified.
In this way, Kyiv's lack of response to any diplomatic initiative from the Islamic Republic of Iran, the imposition of sanctions against Iranian companies, the cancellation of bilateral agreements, and hostile statements indicate the continuation of Ukraine's movement in the direction of severing bilateral relations.
The Ukrainian side's insistence on Iran's non-interference in providing weapons for Russia, and follow-ups for continuing talks are considered an attempt to buy time (despite Tehran's support for Moscow). Ukraine is still in contact with Iran, showing that this issue is being manipulated.
An important point is the quality of future military cooperation between Iran-Russia, which will play an important role in the future of bilateral relations between Iran and Ukraine. If Iran-Russia military interaction goes beyond the current levels and enters the realm of strategic weapons, the possibility of Ukraine cutting relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran is not far from expectation.
However, pursuing diplomatic initiatives by Iran to manage relations with Ukraine is necessary. Any constructive interaction with the Ukrainian side can minimize the negative effects of the Ukraine dispute on Iran-EU relations. To achieve this, it is necessary that cooperation and coordination of all relevant institutions in this matter be conducted through the Supreme National Security Council.
It is also appropriate to consider reopening Iran's embassy office in Moldova as a precautionary measure in case of a possible cutting of relations between Iran and Ukraine.
3) Ukraine Dispute and Iran-European Union Bilateral Relations
Western countries' claims about the Islamic Republic of Iran's military support by sending drones to Russia for use in the Ukraine war have become one of the most serious challenges in Iran-EU relations and have intensified pressures from European countries against Iran.
Although the Islamic Republic of Iran's initiative for dialogue with Ukraine has somewhat reduced the heavy media atmosphere created to accuse our country, from the perspective of European Union and Ukraine, Iran is still considered one of the suppliers of Russia's weapons in the Ukraine war, and this perspective affects our country's interactions.
The revival of JCPOA talks has also been influenced by this issue and has been placed under its shadow. Given the importance of the issue and the necessity of adopting appropriate measures, it is necessary to examine Europe's approach to Iran's connection with the Ukraine war, as well as how to interact with Europe in this regard.
3-1) Europe's View of the Ukraine War and Iran's Position in This War
The Ukraine war has challenged the 80-year security structure based on the post-World War II order.
Europe takes for granted the transfer of equipment from Iran to Russia and denies the denial of these claims by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
From Europe's perspective, Iran, by supporting Russia's focus on the war, has directly targeted Europe's central security interests. Europe emphasizes that sending equipment to Russia is a strategic mistake.
Europe claims that Russia uses Iranian drones to target non-military infrastructure in Ukraine, which has led to war crimes.
Europe considers sending military aid to Russia as a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and does not consider it in line with Iran's neutrality policy.
Europe also wants Iran to take a step further and not initiate sending ballistic missiles to Russia, as this would escalate tensions and lead to a more severe deterioration of Iran-EU relations.
3-2) What Goal Is Europe Pursuing?
It seems that Europe's (West) goal in maximizing Iran's role in the Ukraine war is nothing beyond dissuading Iran from supporting Russia. The main goal is most likely to dissuade Russia from creating an anti-Western coalition.
The West is trying, by highlighting the issue of drones and imposing costs on Iran, to force countries like China, India, and other countries under Russian influence, such as Belarus and Kazakhstan, to withdraw from cooperation with Russia.
3-3) How to Interact with Europe Regarding the Ukraine War
Given the threats arising from Europe's accusations regarding the Ukraine war, especially the possibility of affecting the nuclear agreement and the legal pursuit of the Islamic Republic of Iran's involvement in Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, it is necessary to evaluate the consequences of our country's interaction with Europe in this area. The introduction to this topic is to point out some of the possible interactions with Europe:
3-3-1) Potential Positive Effects
Preventing the impact of the Ukraine war on other important issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the nuclear file.
Containing tensions in the relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the European Union.
Preventing legal consequences for the Islamic Republic of Iran under the pretext of support and participation in Russian war crimes.
Preventing the isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the international arena.
Stopping the trend of Western sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran under the pretext of the Ukraine war.
Preventing the cutting of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Iran.
3-3-2) Negative Consequences
Russia's possible dissatisfaction and serious sensitivity regarding Europe, which could lead to a range of hidden and open reactions.
Reducing the trust of close allies and friends of the Islamic Republic of Iran due to the perception of changing Iran's approach in the Ukraine war.
The possibility of turning these talks into a lever of pressure from Europe against the Islamic Republic of Iran for backing down from the missile talks or regional issues.
In balance, it should be said that the positive effects of interaction with Europe on the Ukraine issue will be more significant for the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran than its negative consequences, as long as the approach to interacting with Europe is balanced.
3-4) It Is Suggested That the Following Tactics Be Put on the Agenda
Avoiding pushing Iran towards Russia, based on the European side's understanding that: Tell the European side that in conditions where Westerners have imposed costs on Iran for alleged participation, this can create incentives for Iran to benefit economically from cooperation with Russia.
Examining the possibility of using the capacity of Iran's close cooperation with Russia as a negotiation tool for the European side. Topics from a collection of subjects might need to be presented as a comprehensive package on nuclear issues, human rights, Ukraine, etc.
Note: This tactic will likely have less influence with internal stakeholders.
Increasing interaction and relations with Eastern European countries, especially Ukraine's important neighbors like Poland and Romania.
In talks with European parties about Ukraine, it is necessary to show Iran's role in exaggeration from an unrealistic perspective. This concept should be conveyed that Ukraine is highlighting the drone issue to attract more aid.
It should also be made clear to the Europeans that during the Iran-Iraq war, despite awareness of Iraq's use of chemical weapons, Europe provided extensive military support to Iraq. We have not forgotten the Europeans' forgotten air and sea restrictions on Iran.
Europeans claim they receive intelligence from Ukraine that indicates Iran's participation in the war, but when asked to provide evidence and documents in response to Iran's request, they say they don't have any evidence. This contradiction in European statements is noteworthy.