The Minsk Agreements: A Broken Peace Deal That Led to War
Discover the full history of the Minsk Agreements, the failed peace deals meant to end the war in eastern Ukraine. Learn why they collapsed and how they set the stage for Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine took place more than three years ago, the term Minsk Agreements have been bandied about with some regularity. Over the last two weeks of tumult and turmoil surrounding discussion between the United States and Ukraine, the Agreements have again come into the forefront of discussions related to Europe’s largest war since World War 2.
Below is a brief explainer of the Agreements for readers of Political.tips:
The Minsk Agreements were born out of the conflict that began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively known as the Donbas) declared independence from Ukraine. Fighting broke out between the separatists and Ukrainian forces, leading to thousands of deaths and a humanitarian crisis.
International efforts to broker a ceasefire led to the first Minsk Agreement in September 2014, but this was only a temporary measure. By early 2015, the situation had worsened, leading to a second agreement that tried to establish a more lasting peace.
Minsk I: The First Attempt (September 2014)
The first Minsk Agreement, signed on September 5, 2014, was a 12-point ceasefire deal negotiated by Ukraine, Russia, the separatist leaders, and the OSCE under the diplomatic framework known as the Normandy Format (involving Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany).
The main points included:
1. An immediate ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
2. Withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front lines.
3. OSCE monitoring of the ceasefire.
4. Amnesty for captured fighters.
5. Decentralization of power in Ukraine, granting some autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk.
6. Release of prisoners.
7. A commitment to early local elections.
8. Improved humanitarian aid access.
However, the ceasefire was shaky from the start. Fighting continued, especially around key cities like Debaltseve and Donetsk airport, and neither side fully adhered to the agreement. By early 2015, it was clear Minsk I had failed.
Minsk II: A More Detailed Agreement (February 2015)
With violence escalating and Ukraine suffering heavy losses, a second round of negotiations was held in February 2015. This time, leaders from Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France met directly in Minsk, Belarus, and drafted a much more detailed peace plan.
The Minsk II Agreement, signed on February 12, 2015, built on the first agreement but included new measures:
1. A new ceasefire starting February 15, 2015.
2. Withdrawal of heavy weapons within 14 days.
3. OSCE monitoring of the ceasefire and withdrawal process.
4. Legal reforms in Ukraine, including constitutional changes that would grant Donetsk and Luhansk “special status.”
5. Release of prisoners and an exchange of captives.
6. Restoration of Ukrainian control over its border with Russia (to be completed after local elections in the separatist areas).
7. Withdrawal of all foreign military units from Ukrainian territory.
8. Disarmament of illegal armed groups in the Donbas.
9. Elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, according to Ukrainian law.
This agreement was also endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, giving it an international legal basis.
Why the Minsk Agreements Failed
Despite the detailed provisions of Minsk II, it was never fully implemented. Several factors contributed to its failure:
1. Ceasefire Violations – Almost immediately after the agreement was signed, fighting continued, especially around Debaltseve, a strategic railway hub. Ukrainian forces eventually had to withdraw after intense fighting. Ceasefire breaches became common.
2. Disagreements on Implementation – Ukraine wanted full control over its borders before granting autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk, while Russia and the separatists demanded autonomy first. This deadlock prevented progress.
3. Russia’s Role – Although Russia was not officially recognized as a combatant in the conflict, it was widely accused of supporting separatist forces with weapons, soldiers, and intelligence. Ukraine and Western nations argued that Russia was not genuinely interested in peace.
4. Lack of Trust – Both Ukraine and the separatists (backed by Russia) doubted the other side’s willingness to comply. Ukraine saw the agreements as a way for Russia to maintain influence over its territory, while Russia claimed Ukraine was stalling reforms.
5. Political Changes in Ukraine – The Ukrainian government under Petro Poroshenko (who signed Minsk II) was replaced by Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2019. Zelenskyy initially tried to revive the peace process but faced strong opposition from Ukrainian nationalists who saw Minsk II as a concession to Russia.
6. International Factors – The European Union and the United States imposed sanctions on Russia, hoping to pressure it into compliance. However, these measures did not change Russia’s strategic objectives.
By 2020–2021, the Minsk process was essentially dead, even though diplomats continued referencing it in peace discussions.
The Minsk Agreements and the 2022 Russian Invasion
The failure of the Minsk Agreements set the stage for a larger conflict. In late 2021, Russia began amassing troops near Ukraine’s border, citing Ukraine’s failure to implement Minsk II as one of its grievances. On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, effectively nullifying the agreements. Three days later, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin later claimed that Minsk was never meant to work, arguing that it was only a stalling tactic to buy time for Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials, including former President Poroshenko, admitted that Minsk was largely a way to prevent further military defeats while Ukraine strengthened its army.
Conclusion: A Broken Peace Process
The Minsk Agreements were ambitious attempts to stop the war in eastern Ukraine, but they were doomed by mistrust, political deadlock, and Russia’s continued interference. Instead of bringing lasting peace, they became a diplomatic battleground that delayed, rather than prevented, further escalation. The agreements bought time but failed to resolve the core political and territorial disputes between Ukraine and Russia, ultimately leading to the full-scale war in 2022.
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